Houston ISD (HISD), the largest school district in Texas, is facing a significant decline in enrollment as it enters its second year under state control. According to data posted on the district’s website, there has been a nearly 9% decrease in enrollment compared to the previous school year. This decline is particularly pronounced in schools that are part of Superintendent Mike Miles’ New Education System (NES), which has seen a nearly 12% drop in enrollment.
The NES model emphasizes premade lesson plans, discipline, instructional oversight, and testing-based performance. While these reforms have led to improved standardized test scores, they have also sparked community backlash and high staff turnover. This turmoil likely contributed to the enrollment decline at the start of the school year.
Public school funding in Texas is directly tied to enrollment, as districts receive per-student allotments from the state. The lack of increase in allotment amounts since 2019 has led to budget shortfalls in HISD and other districts in the Houston area. This financial strain has prompted HISD to propose a $4.4 billion bond package, the largest in Texas history, to address facility needs and support educational programs.
Enrollment projections play a crucial role in HISD’s financial planning, as missing these projections could have significant financial implications for the district. The district’s $2.1 billion operating budget for this school year focuses on expanding the NES model to more campuses, despite the enrollment decline in NES schools compared to non-NES schools.
Former Houston-area superintendent Duncan Klussmann, now an assistant clinical professor at the University of Houston, highlights the importance of monitoring financial projections and enrollment trends to ensure the district’s financial stability. He notes that school enrollment typically peaks in late September or early October, so it is too early to gauge the full impact of the current decline.
As HISD navigates these challenges, it will be essential for the district to address the underlying factors contributing to the enrollment decline, manage its financial resources effectively, and continue to prioritize student success and academic achievement. By closely monitoring enrollment trends and adapting its strategies accordingly, HISD can work towards stabilizing its student population and ensuring a high-quality education for all students.
